ABSTRACT
Background Control of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Germany and return to pre-pandemic behaviour can only be achieved through natural or vaccine-induced immunity. Sufficient vaccine capacity promotes interest in the necessary and feasible target vaccination coverage. Methods An age and risk group stratified SEIR transmission model was used to assess the impact of vaccination coverage ranging 65%-95% for 12-59-year-olds and 90%-95% for ≥ 60-year-olds on COVID-19 incidence and intensive care unit (ICU) utilization between 01.07.2021-31.03.2022. Separate implementation of licensed vaccines allows to consider different efficacies, delivery rates and age-specific national vaccination recommendations. The analysis was conducted under different assumptions about contact behaviour during summer, reduction of daily contacts with increasing number of cases, daily vaccination uptake and the dominant variant. Data from the COVIMO study (N = 3004, data collection: 17.05.-09.06.2021) were used to define the population percentage willing to be vaccinated. Results The COVIMO study indicates an achievable vaccination compliance rate of 83.9% among 12-59-year-olds and 94.8% among those ≥ 60-year-olds. Maximum incidence or ICU utilization during observation period decreases from 385 to 61 and 6220 to 2800, respectively, with an increase in vaccination coverage from 65% to 95% of 12-59-year-olds, 90% vaccination rate among ≥ 60-year-olds, compared to pre-pandemic reduced contact behaviour in summer and reduction of contacts as case numbers increase. Conclusions The vaccination campaign should be continued at high intensity until at least 85% of 12-59-year-olds or 90% of ≥ 60-year-olds are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Based on the population's willingness to be vaccinated, this goal seemed feasible. Key messages • Mathematical modeling was used to determine an evidence-based target vaccination coverage of ≥ 85%. • Expertise in modeling should be further strengthened.
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 represents one of the greatest global challenges of the last decades in terms of medical, coordination and management aspects, but also on the societal and economic level. The borderline experience of dealing with such a complex, global event has shown that Austria - as the majority of countries and organizations - was inadequately prepared for a crisis of this kind in some areas. The call for a comprehensive, applicable and interoperable solution portfolio including evidence-based analysis of current processes/structures, tools and infrastructures as well as lessons learned from the current pandemic response, is evident. The “ROADS to Health” reflect this approach7, a holistic solution set up aiming at developing a technologically supported, clearly structured pandemic management for the future. Experiences from the current management will be processed and included in risk analyses to describe further, possible future pandemic scenarios in order to derive practical resilience strategies and develop connectable tool modules and a roadmap. "Strengthening strengths, bridging weaknesses" will be the overarching goal, taking into account specific, particularly relevant questions and tasks of the stakeholders as well as of other interested parties involved in management with regard to the actual prevention potential of current, isolated measures. Resilience is thus to be promoted in selected, particularly relevant areas and tools for reducing vulnerability are to be made available to decision-makers through a holistic approach. This keynote paper will draft the frame of this model by presenting the underlying background and basis of the ROADS to Health-solution set and open the floor for a wider range of perspectives of optimization in pandemic and crisis management. © 2021 IDIMT 2021 - Pandemics: Impacts, Strategies and Responses, 29th Interdisciplinary Information Management Talks All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
Today's business environment is - most recently due to the COVID 19 pandemic - characterized by increasingly short-cycle global as well as corporate changes. In this context, the design of corporate networks to stabilize supply chains is becoming the focus of corporate activities. An essential prerequisite for this is the evaluation of the current situation of existing supply chains. However, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in particular often lack both the information and the capacity to evaluate them. © 2021 Carl Hanser Verlag. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated a time-critical expansion of medical staff in intensive care units (ICU) and emergency rooms (ER). OBJECTIVE: This article describes the development, performance and first results of an interprofessional blended learning concept called hospital paramedics, qualifying paramedics and additional medical personnel to support ICUs and ERs. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Protestant Hospital of the Bethel Foundation (EvKB), University Hospital OWL, University of Bielefeld in cooperation with the Study Institute Westfalen-Lippe, developed a 2-stage blended learning concept (stage 1 elearning with online tutorials, stage 2 practical deployment) comprising 3 modules: ICU, ER and in-hospital emergency medicine. At the beginning, the participants were asked about their sociodemographic data (age, gender, type of medical qualifications) and subjective feeling of confidence. At the end, a final discussion with the participant, the practice instructor and the supervising physician took place and an evaluation of the deployment by the head of the practice and the hospital paramedic was carried out using questionnaires. RESULTS: Within 6 weeks 58 (63%) of the 92 participants completed the online course and 17 (29%) additionally completed their traineeship. In the ICU they assisted with preparing catheter systems, medication and nursing, performed Manchester triage and initial care in the ER. After completion hospital paramedics were significantly more confident when working in a hospital, catheterization and tracheostoma care (pâ¯< 0.05). Of the supervisors 94% deemed the deployment as useful and 100% of the participants were prepared to be available at short notice in their areas as compensation for the COVID-19-pandemic in the event of a staff shortage. Through the provision of additional intensive care ventilators and monitoring units in the period from March to the beginning of May 2020 and the personnel management that was carried out, the EvKB was in a position to increase the number of previously provided ventilator beds by potentially >40 ventilation places. CONCLUSION: Blended learning concepts, such as hospital paramedics, can quickly qualify medical personnel for use in system-relevant settings, relieve nursing staff and thus create an expansion of intensive care capacities. Existing or pending pandemic and contingency plans should be complemented by such blended learning training so that they are immediately available in case of a second pandemic wave, future pandemics or other crisis situations.